Spring 2026 fire outlook: what the new seasonal forecast means for your property

The Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) released its Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for spring 2026 on 19 August. The short version for Victoria: forecasters are tipping the warmest, driest spring in 25 years across much of the state, with the fire season likely to start earlier than usual in some districts.

What the outlook says

Above average temperatures and below average rainfall are forecast for most of Victoria through spring. That's on top of heavy grass growth from a wet winter in central and western districts, which means a big fuel load that will cure fast once the heat arrives. Fire agencies across the state are warning landholders not to treat this as an average year.

What it means in Central Victoria

Around Bendigo, Heathcote, Castlemaine and the surrounding districts, the risk is grassfire first, scrubfire second. A wet winter means thick grass, and thick grass that cures in a hot, dry spring burns fast and hard. The Fire Danger Period could be declared earlier than usual, which shortens the window where machinery work, slashing and mulching can be done without restrictions.

What to do this month

Get the work booked now, before restrictions start. Slash grass before it cures. Cut and maintain your firebreaks. Clear scrub and regrowth back from the house, sheds and water tanks. Open up your access tracks so a truck can get in and out. Once the Fire Danger Period is declared, the calendar shrinks and every operator in the region gets slammed at once.

Where to check the official advice

• CFA: Fire Danger Period and restrictions

  Check what you can and can't do

• AFAC Seasonal Bushfire Outlook

  The full national outlook

• VicEmergency

  Warnings and incidents

Rules, overlays and mapping change. We check the links in this article regularly, but always confirm the current requirements with your council or the relevant Victorian department before you clear anything.

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